Will Russia conduct a nuclear test outside Europe
0
100
likelihood
5%
1.3
30 day baseline nuclear risk
change in risk:
+7.3
0%
40%
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test within Europe
4%
+5.9
2%
to
4%
1
forecast
2.2%
4%
to
6%
1
forecast
5%
6%
to
8%
1
forecast
7%
12%
to
14%
1
forecast
13%
34%
to
36%
1
forecast
35%
2%
to
4%
2
forecasts
2%
2.3%
4%
to
6%
1
forecast
5%
8%
to
10%
1
forecast
8%
14%
to
16%
1
forecast
15%
34%
to
36%
1
forecast
35%