90-day risk of a NATO member country offensively entering Ukraine/Ukrainian airspace

90-day risk of US strikes against Russian military assets outside Russia

90-day risk of Kaliningrad being blockaded

90-day risk of the Montreux Convention being scrapped

90-day risk of NATO member countries sinking >40% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet

90-day risk of Russia being designated a state sponsor of terror by the US

90-day risk of a cyberattack shutting off most of Russia's electric power

States other than Russia using a non-test nuclear weapon by 2033

90-day risk of an American nuclear strike on Russia

90-day risk of a nuclear war between America and Russia that results in at least 1m fatalities

US GDP in 2023

Russian GDP in 2023

90-day risk of Vladimir Putin leaving office

A war across the Taiwan strait by 2027